While global medical trend remains relatively stable and is generally experiencing only modest increases, there are enough exceptions to be a source of genuine concern. For 2019, the projected global, weighted medical trend is 7.6%, which continues to outstrip general inflation by a factor of more than 2:1 on a global basis. However, this value is just 0.5% higher than the reported value for 2018, with no increase at all expected in Europe. Despite the relative global stability, it is concerning to see how the trend continues to edge upwards in some of the larger, more significant medical markets such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico and the U.A.E. The largest increases are expected to be seen in the Middle East and Africa where the regional trend increased from 8.5% to 9.9% in 2018 and is projected to rise to 12.4% in 2019.
Other regions show closely guarded optimism, with most predicting either medical trends will stay the same or increase by conservative amounts. There are continuing concerns about the manner in which treatment is provided, with fears that it is not being directed on the basis of strict medical need. Respondents also expressed misgivings about reliance on pharmacy services and the cost implications of innovative future treatments.
To further darken prospects for the future, there are several conditions that are projected to represent significant sources of claims. Alongside circulatory conditions and cancer, which are illnesses that most industry experts would expect to appear, are mental and behavioral disorders.
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| 2019 Global Medical Trends Survey Report | 5.2 MB |
