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The Political Risk Index - Autumn 2019

Analysing patterns in the world’s most vulnerable countries

Credit, Political Risk and Terrorism|Financial, Executive and Professional Risks (FINEX)
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By Cynthia Dugan | October 28, 2019

2019 is already shaping up to be a year of protests. From the protests seen in Hong Kong to the Extinction Rebellion movement seen in the UK, pressures are being put on governments across the world.

Produced in partnership with Oxford Analytica, our index brings you up-to-date, relevant and meticulously researched information on some of the most vulnerable territories to help you more effectively manage your political risk.

The Willis Towers Watson Political Risk Index contains 40 countries, and recent editions have exhibited a clear trend in which more countries have a rising overall risk score, indicating an increase in political risk, than a falling score. In mid-2018, we still had 20 countries whose scores were falling, denoting less risk, compared to 14 whose scores were rising. But by the final edition of 2018, the Index had moved firmly into negative territory as 18 countries posted a rising score while only 13 saw their overall scores go down. In our first edition of 2019, the number of countries with rising scores had risen to 25.

The previous edition of the Index, the second for 2019, showed something of a pull-back from this negative trend, with only 17 countries posting a rising score compared to 19 with lower risk scores. The question then was whether this represented merely a lull before a continuation of the negative trend or, instead, signalled a more fundamental change of direction.

The scores in the current Index provide something of an answer. Countries with rising risk once again outnumber those with falling risk , while a relatively high number of countries (seven) have scores that are unchanged. The previous results do indeed look like a pause for breath before the concern about political risk resumes. While there are fewer countries with a rising score than at the start of the year, the fact that rising scores again outnumber falling ones means that political risk continues to rise across the Index as a whole. As we approach the end of 2019, it is hard to envision a major shift away from this trend during 2020.

Sign up to read the political risk index to:

  • Gain insights and analysis of 40 countries across the world
  • See an analysis into the terrorism, expropriation, political violence, exchange transfer and trade sanction, and sovereign default risks for each country
  • Discover the risk temperature index for each country as well as a comparison on each region and country

Contact us if you would like to discuss any of the topics in this Index.

Read the Political Risk Index Autumn 2019

Author

Cynthia Dugan
Global Sales Director for Financial Solutions

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